Surging Forward in 2026
There was a lot going on in 2025. Sweeping policy and economic pivots made waves at global, national, state, and local levels. AI investment and advancement took center stage throughout the business community and in our personal lives. And on a note closer to home, we launched and began to grow Calkin Public Affairs. Last year was definitely unforgettable on multiple levels (Expectations vs. Realities Looking Back at the First Year of Building a Firm).
So, what does 2026 hold? While no one has a crystal ball, we do know there are some very exciting and impactful events and developments on the horizon – things that will deeply affect business, policy, and society. Richard Stapler had a great take on the budget (2026-27 California Budget Take: The Challenges & Opportunities Ahead). Let’s take a look at several of them that will shape the public affairs arena over 2026 and beyond:
Election Year: Perhaps the most obvious is the fact that it is an election year on all levels. On the national front, all eyes will be on Midterm elections, and how those results will maintain or shift the power balance driving national policy. Additionally, state and local elections will be front and center, especially as California looks to elect a new governor from a very crowded and capable field, and we see the first elections in our newly redrawn congressional districts.
Social Spotlight: In California, many core social issues will continue to be front and center or even elevated from 2025. A top overarching theme will be affordability and cost of living (CalMatters: Gavin Newsom's legacy...) – an issue that has long been front and center in the state, but has now taken a national focus. Additional issues include immigration and deportation policies, shaky labor markets, and homelessness. These issues will dominate headlines and organizations supporting all sides will fight for public and private dollars to push solutions forward.
Continued National Uncertainty: While California drives trends on many fronts, federal policy does have an impact on our ability to govern. Deregulation of industries will continue to require flexible business, economic and climate policies and strategies. And broader topics like AI are now receiving executive orders to be governed on a national vs. state-by-state scale.
Worker Concerns: Rising unemployment, tech sector and broader industry layoffs, low hiring amidst inflation and an AI boom are causing consumers and investors to take a cautious outlook on the year. The state of the economy will influence policies around interest rates, lending and broader investment strategies, to name a few, which will directly affect both businesses and consumers alike.
Additionally, as of last week, Californians started the year with many new laws that have gone into effect, which will affect everything from public safety to transportation to climate and beyond. These new laws may be a foreshadowing of additional types of consumer and business protections to come in 2026. Some of the notable new laws include an official ban on all grocery plastic bags (SB1053), an assurance for low cost insulin (SB40), no face coverings for law enforcement (SB627), regulations around responsible AI (SB53) and many more. For some of the most notable new laws in effect, please read more here.
There is a lot to think about heading into the new year. But while there may be some challenges on the horizon, there are also strong opportunities to position clients as thought leaders, protecting and growing what is important to them and their networks. We are already working on multiple legislative campaigns as we barrel towards the bill introduction deadline on February 20th. By closely watching and analyzing trends and data, our team will continue to create fluid strategies that best match the market and current sentiments. We see a lot of reasons for excitement and hope in 2026, and we are ready for an amazing year two.