My Take: Proposition 50 and How This All Plays Out
Every few years, an issue comes along in Sacramento that overshadows nearly everything else. This fall, that issue is redistricting. Proposition 50, which goes before voters in November, has quickly become the defining storyline, reshaping conversations in the Capitol and injecting uncertainty into potential future campaigns across the state.
At its core, Proposition 50 asks voters whether California should continue using congressional maps drawn by the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission or temporarily switch to maps created by the Legislature. If it passes, Legislature-drawn maps will be used for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections before authority returns to the commission. If it fails, the commission’s existing maps remain in place through the decade.
Bold Prediction: At the end of the day, I believe that Prop. 50 will pass if a few things happen and here’s why:
If the Yes side successfully frames this as a referendum on California maintaining its status as a bastion of democracy and us (CA) vs Trump, then I would expect a win similar to the result of the 2021 Newsom recall election that went down 68% to 32%. The Yes on Prop. 50 message framing is similar and just like in 2021, we expect the lower turnout that is typical in a special election with a more engaged and partisan voter.
The Newsom team hasn’t lost yet. They are talented, battle-tested, and understand California and this moment. I give them the upper hand strategically against a team of Republican consultants and operatives who haven’t proven that they know how to win statewide in California.
This election gives Democrats a place to take out their frustrations (that isn’t a social media platform or Thanksgiving dinner table). In California, Democrats hold close to a 2:1 voter registration advantage over Republicans and among these Democratic voters, Trump is deeply unpopular with negatives in the 70% plus range.
But, How Does the No Side Win? They make the argument that this is bad for democracy and sets California back. The problem is, the emotion around that argument just isn’t as strong as sticking it to Trump. The good news for the No side is they start on solid footing. A recent UC Berkeley IGS poll showed the initiative at 48% Y -32% N -20% U. The Yes on 50’s own campaign put it at 54% Y -44% N. This is clearly far off from where the Yes side wants to start --- ideally north of 60% Y. So, the No side needs to just poke holes in the measure and keep the pressure on and not let the Yes side gain traction.
A lot is swirling around this effort and we won’t know the outcome until after the ballots have been cast, but here are few observations to consider:
Money Talks: Each side should be well-funded with advertisements already in circulation. Current estimates put spending at over $100 million per side. In practice, this means both sides will be adequately resourced to get their messages out, and the Yes ad featuring Newsom I saw over the weekend and No ads that are dominating my YouTube feed won’t be stopping any time soon.
Gubernatorial Boost: I believe the Yes on 50 campaign will feature US Senator Alex Padilla prominently in their ads --- specifically the footage of him being detained at a press conference in Los Angeles over the ICE raids. This type of exposure could help boost his profile throughout the state and set him up for a potential gubernatorial run in 2026.
Capitol Shake-up: The Senate Pro-Tem would have a newly created congressional seat to compete for, which would inevitably impact the makeup and dynamic of the state Senate depending on the outcome. And other members would also run for new seats, creating a host of elections nobody saw coming.
From now until Election Day, Proposition 50 will dominate headlines in Sacramento. Campaigns are pouring in resources, legal teams are preparing challenges, and policymakers are working through multiple scenarios for 2026. The months ahead will decide not only how California’s districts are drawn, but also how much influence the state wields in shaping the direction of Congress. Stay tuned (which won’t be hard with $200 million dollars hitting the airwaves).