Unsettled & Uncertain: Where the Race to Become California’s Next Governor Stands
Unsettled.
The governor’s race in California is deeply unsettled. It has also been deeply unsettling for the many folks who care deeply about who our next Governor will be, since as of this writing, we are roughly a month from the primary election and there is no unequivocal frontrunner. That is unprecedented for this state.
“Unpredictable” and “unsettled” is not a sentiment our clients like having conveyed to them.
What we can do is be assured of the general make-up and direction of the State Legislature and our Constitutional offices. That’s a start. What we can also do is look at policy priorities, backgrounds, and relationships of several of the top tier candidates and make some educated guesses.
For fun, I’ll pick on the two Republicans as a way of getting the thought exercise going:
Chad Bianco: a bomb- throwing, hard right Republican becomes Governor. The question becomes – does he want to stay in office once elected? I’d wager he would turn to one of his brothers, who is a well-respected Family Court Judge in Los Angeles (appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown) for guidance.
Steve Hilton: a former political consultant to UK Prime Minister David Cameron who was noted for bringing Cameron around to support same-sex marriage and climate change policies. Of the two top-tier Republicans, my money would be on him to be flexible enough to make it until at least the end of one term without a successful recall. And yes, the DC dance for him would be awkward.
Do not underestimate additional significant bomb-drops in this race. The chattering class has been doing just that. And with so many viable candidates on the ballot, the power of the low double-digit block of undecided voters is real – especially if presented with late-breaking bad news about a front-runner, the race could swing in literally any direction.
One thing is absolutely certain – the day after the primary, fully expect (and give grace to) those who have to play catch-up.