What the Heck is Going on With the California Governor's Race?
Alright, I'll admit it. I was ready to jump on the Swalwell bandwagon.
I had met him a few times over the years, watched him surge past a struggling field, and had quiet conversations with friends, colleagues, and organizations who had already endorsed him. Many told me the same thing: they had looked him in the eye, asked directly about the rumors swirling around him, and he categorically denied them. I was in conversations to pull together a fundraiser when the game-changing 48 hours happened.
It's hard to remember another time in my career when a candidate fell so hard, so fast. In just two days, the front runner to lead the world’s fourth largest economy became unemployed, maybe divorced, and possibly facing criminal charges. I ripped up the donation check sitting on my desk. We all owe a debt of gratitude to the victims who told their story in time to make a difference and prevented Swalwell from succeeding. I can't imagine how hard it was for them to come forward.
Where to Go from Here
Now, like every other Sacramento insider, I'm trying to figure out what it all means. The honest answer is: nobody knows.
To take a thoughtful - an honest - look ahead, it’s important to remember how we got here. Kamala Harris took a hard look at a run for California’s top position over the summer and passed. Senator Padilla decided to stay in Washington. Attorney General Bonta chose to serve out his full term. Tony Atkins dropped out. Our Lt. Governor decided to run for Treasurer instead. California's entire A-list looked at this race and took a pass, and that tells you something about how difficult the moment is, even before Swalwell's collapse scrambled everything again.
So here we are, a month out, with a field that nobody fully predicted. A billionaire spending over a hundred million promoting himself as a progressive. Katie Porter is now circulating letters of support from her previous staff - a sign of a campaign working hard to right itself. Matt Mahan is showing up with a compelling story and genuinely impressive record on homelessness in San Jose, but running as a moderate in a primary that keeps pulling left. And then there's Xavier Becerra - quietly surging, and maybe the most surprising story in the race. Married 38 years, served at the highest levels of government, by all accounts someone who does what he says.
Post Swalwell, it could be what voters are looking for – some competency, not to mention integrity. Plus, it’s most likely former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton coming in first and Sherriff Chad Bianco still in the mix across the aisle. I would imagine that as soon as the next democrat gains frontrunner status, one of the other candidates – or independent expenditures – will take aim and start pointing out all their flaws. This will make the race fluid until the end. A race this competitive hasn’t happened in a long time.
The Once Unthinkable is a Real Possibility
Could we end up with two Republicans in November? I wouldn't be shocked, though I don't believe it will happen. Even still, it is a possibility with a Democratic field so scattered.
Whoever becomes our next leader is going to have a difficult mandate to help steer the Golden State into a new era of progress, unlike any Governor in recent memory.
I just wish I could tell you who that is. We’ll talk again post-primary.